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video Nijjar killing – Pannun case How ought to India handle diplomatic fallout

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You might name it the Tale of two trials:

With the extradition of an Indian Nikhil Gupta to the US, and the arrest of 4 Indians in Canada, India is anticipated to face various questions over its operations on concentrating on Khalistani separatists within the west.

This week marked many anniversaries

– A 12 months since Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistani separatist needed on terror prices in India, was gunned down outdoors a gurudwara in Canada’s Surrey

– A 12 months for the reason that US FBI and Drug Enforcement Agency stopped what it calls an assassination plot underneath means in opposition to Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York

– And a 12 months since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state go to to the US

This week additionally noticed a flurry of exercise linked to these 3 occasions:

1. PM Modi met US President Biden, a quick change on the side-lines of the G7 in Italy, the primary time they met for the reason that FBI filed prices within the Pannun case accusing Indian safety officers for the Pannun plot

2. Modi additionally met Canadian PM Trudeau a a lot frostier change, the primary time they met since Trudeau went public in parliament with accusations in opposition to Indian officers within the Nijjar killing

3. Next an announcement that Nikhil Gupta, the person needed within the Pannun plot case, had been extradited to the US from the Czech Republic and produced in court- indicating a trial is more likely to start in that case

4. US Congressman, together with Democrat Bernie Sanders wrote to US Secretary of State Blinken saying that they have been very involved by the allegations they referred to as credible, and need a briefing by the Department and comply with up motion in opposition to India.

5. After cancelling twice this 12 months, US NSA Jake Sullivan landed in India- for his first such conferences for the reason that US went public with its prices in opposition to India- he met NSA Ajit Doval, EAM S. Jaishankar and even PM Modi. No public statements have been made on the problem, as the 2 sides met ostensibly to debate iCET evaluate and technological points.

6. Back to Canada- and the complete Parliament there determined to marks a 12 months since Nijjar’s killing by holding a second of silence for him, definitely uncommon given the fees in opposition to him in India, whereas Nijjar supporters took out rallies. India countered by saying a memorial this weekend for individuals who died on board the Air India Kanishka flight in 1985- an act of Khalistani terrorism

7. Meanwhile Australia’s public broadcaster launched a documentary that not solely revealed the “nest of spies” case- the place 4 Indian diplomats have been expelled for spying in 2020, linking their actions to surveillance of Khalistani separatists in Australia, but in addition spoke about political interference in Australia by teams linked to the ruling BJP. And keep in mind German courts have already convicted 3 for espionage on Sikh teams there in 2020.

Diplomatic Impact

1. The prices have taken a wrecking ball to the India-Canada relationship- it’s unlikely these can recuperate anytime quickly

2. They have put a pressure on the India-US relationship, even when the governments nonetheless have deep cooperation- the influence on intelligence cooperation, authorized cooperation and the more and more involved voices from the US Congress will hamper ties

3. The accusation by US Congressmen of Transnational repression is extra critical in the long run, because it

-Categorises India together with US enemies like Russia, China and Iran

-Impacts India’s picture as a democracy

-Could open India to punitive motion, together with withholding of defence provides

Challenges forward for Indian diplomacy

 1. Prepare for the trial revelations

2. Conclude India’s High-Level enquiry

3. Cooperate on Canadian investigation if proof offered

4. Proving cost that the Khalistani separatists on India’s terror lists are literally needed to violent acts and never dissidents- and pursue extradition requests

WV Take: Regardless of what’s confirmed in courtroom, it’s clear that India has been put within the dock due to the notion that its intelligence businesses have overreached of their operations, notably in terms of pleasant nations and strategic companions. The prices of violating worldwide guidelines and transnational repression are to not be taken flippantly, as these don’t simply have a bearing on India’s picture, however can severely curtail the work of India’s diplomats and missions worldwide, and harm bilateral ties irreparably.

WV Reading Recommendations

1. RAW : A HISTORY OF INDIA’S COVERT OPERATIONS by Yatish Yadav

2. Blood For Blood – 50 years of the Global Khalistani Project by Terry Milewski

3. SIKH SEPARATISM: A History of Conflicts by Rajesh Singh

4. Transnational Repression within the Age of Globalisation by Dana Moss and Saipira Furstenberg, and one coming quickly referred to as Transnational Repression and Extrajudicial Killings by Marty Gitlin

5.The Unending Game: A Former R&AW Chief’s Insights into Espionage by Vikram Sood and The Ultimate Goal

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