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Biden vs Trump | What do Super Tuesday outcomes imply for U.S. and India?

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As US democrats and republicans every hand US President Joseph Biden and former US President Donald Trump wins within the Super Tuesday votes, a rematch between the 2 appears probably. What does that imply for US Foreign Policy, for geopolitics and for India? We will weigh up the variations.

Hello and Welcome to WorldView at The Hindu with me Suhasini Haidar. We may also converse to former US National Security Council official Lisa Curtis up forward.

But first the US crossed a serious milestone in its election 12 months calendar- with Super Tuesday on March 5- a day that comes precisely 8 months earlier than the Presidential election, due on November 5 this 12 months.

“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason……that nobody has been able to do for a long time” stated Trump.

President Joseph Biden didn’t give a speech on Super Tuesday, saying in an announcement that the outcomes gave Americans a alternative between going forwards with him or backwards with Donald Trump. In his State of the Union speech in US Congress, he took an extra swipe at Trump.

“Now my predecessor a Republican said to Putin “Do whatever you want”. A former President bowing right down to a Russian chief is outrageous harmful and unacceptable”

Clearly international occasions and international coverage shall be a key a part of this 12 months’s US elections, and you will need to control how the race goes for that cause.

Now there’s much less buzz about this election for quite a few causes:

1. Both contenders have been Presidents for 1 time period each- Trump from 2016-2020 and Biden from 2020-2024

2. At 81 Biden is the oldest US President, and at 77 Trump is the second oldest within the race- and considerations about their psychological and bodily well being overshadow different considerations

3. Neither candidate has any main challengers- and one ought to most likely have appeared by this level within the race. Trump’s final rival Nikki Haley bowed out of the race this weeks, profitable solely 2 state elections- Vermont and DC.

Even so rather a lot does hinge for the world on what the consequence will be- So what are the variations between them on 5 key international points

ISSUE BIDEN TRUMP
CHINA AND INDO PACIFIC Will proceed with the Indo-Pacific Policy and Quad to problem China More more likely to struggle China with Trade measures, tariffs and sanctions
RUSSIA Says he’s dedicated to serving to Ukraine struggle Russia, extra navy provides, goal Putin Silent on Putin, he’s more likely to pull funding for Ukraine, make European allies pay extra
MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT Continue help for Israel, however push for much less Palestinian civilian casualties, and towards Gaza occupation by Israel Will help Israel much more, unlikely to issue civilian casualties or Gaza, however may dealer one other deal just like the Abraham accords- esp. with Saudi Arabia
NATO AND US INVOLVEMENT ABROAD Will push for strengthening NATO, including extra members, and US engagement in all geopolitical conflicts More palms off on battle, gained’t need US boots on the bottom overseas, Has already demanded NATO pay its share, and earlier threatened to drag out
GLOBALISM AND MULTILATERALISM Continue sturdy engagement with UN and different multilateral organisations on local weather, AI and cyberwarfare, nuclear and different future challenges Campaign slogan to “Reject Globalism” and more likely to make combating radical Islamic terror, Iran, restore “American leadership”. Would defund or withdraw from UN organisations and agreements

What are the important thing points for India in the case of Biden vs Trump insurance policies?

Both sides have distinguished candidates who occur to be Indian-American- US VP Kamala Harris is on the ticket, and whereas former Governor and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley has bowed out, Trump has saved Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out earlier and even Tulsi Gabbard, who is just not of Indian origin however identifies as a Hindu-American as doable working mates.

1.TRADE AND INVESTMENT

2. DEFENCE TIES

3. PAKISTAN AND CHINA

4.HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES

5.IMMIGRATION & DIASPORA

Earlier I spoke to Lisa Curtis, who was the Deputy Assistant to President Trump on the US NSC, and now’s the Director for Indo Pacific Security Programme- and started by asking her how a lot would hinge on 

Q: How a lot would change?

A: If you’re speaking a couple of nation like India, for instance, I believe that we’d not see main modifications. There’s been bipartisan help during the last 20 years, whether or not it’s Republican or Democrat, favouring build up the connection with India, build up India’s functionality in order that it may possibly play a stronger function within the Indo Pacific and assist with that balancing with China.

Q: In 2018, India did settle for the Trump administration demand to zero out oil imports from Iran, however in 2022 refused to conform to the Biden administration’s preliminary demand to chop oil imports from Russia….What form of expectations would the following US authorities have on future conflicts from India?

A: I believe the Biden administration has been extremely affected person with India on the problem of India help to Russia, you understand, rising its vitality imports from Russia, taking a impartial stance on the UN and different such insurance policies. And you even have the problem of the plot to assassinate Sikh activists within the United States…

Q: The alleged plot…

A: Yes, alleged, and the truth that these two points, have not likely disrupted the US-India relationship says one thing in regards to the basis of that relationship and the way a lot has been invested during the last a number of years. When it involves the Trump administration, I believe Iran is a matter he can be robust on. On Taiwan, there wasn’t any expectation that India would ship warships or become involved militarily. I believe there’s an understanding that effectively, India may present diplomatic help to Taiwan, humanitarian help and should even enable the US some form of basing or logistics help. With the Trump administration, I believe it’s troublesome to say. President Trump did have very excessive expectations from India on supporting Afghanistan.

WV Take: The election of the US President this 12 months doesn’t ignite as a lot curiosity for quite a few reasons- esp. the truth that the candidates have already been within the place earlier than, and whoever wins will solely get one term- 4 years in workplace, and has a restricted capacity to take ahead their insurance policies this level on. While India has a great report of coping with each, there’s little doubt that there’s extra predictability with President Biden, versus the social media surprises that President Trump dealt out- a Trump administration nonetheless will take much less of an curiosity in considerations about India’s democracy, human rights and press freedoms. The most vital a part of their insurance policies for India will little doubt be how US ties with China fare, as that may resolve many developments within the area.

WV Reading Recommendations :

1. The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump by Alexander Ward

2. America in Retreat Foreign Policy below Donald Trump by Mel Gurtov

3. Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America by Maggie Haberman

4. Hillbilly Elegy by JD Vance

5. A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on Democracy by Nancy L. Rosenblum and Russell Muirhead

6. The Persuaders: At the Front Lines of the Fight for Hearts, Minds, and Democracy by Anand Giridharadas

7. Open Embrace: India-US Ties : India-US Ties in a Divided World by Varghese Ok. George

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon & Kanishkaa Balachandran

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